How It Started on 2024-04-05

On Monday April 8, 2024, Elon said that AI will be smarter than any human around the end of next year (next year being 2025).

I am not making this shit up, here is a reputable source: Ars Technica

He is also one week too late for April fools.

How I See It Going

No. AI as it is today can be faster than humans. It can be more accurate than humans in specific use cases. It is not, however, smarter than humans.

How It Actually Went

How It Started on 2024-04-05

On April 5, 2024, Elon posted a Tweet on Xitter saying that Tesla will reveal its robotaxi on August 8th. He did not mention which year, but everyone makes the assumption it is 2024. Source: The Verge

How I See It Going

Yes, Elon will present something on August 8th, 2024. Tesla has a recorded history of doctoring demo videos, so it is definitely possible to present a product on August 8th. Elon did not promise it would actually work on August 8th, 2024, so my first bet is that yes he will present some sort of robotaxi on said date. My second bet is that the product will be presented as being in beta. My third bet is that it will never get out of beta.

How It Actually Went

How It Started on 2023-10-20

At the end of October 2023, Elon Musk said that it would blow his mind if they don’t have X’s payment system rolled out by the end of 2024. Not just a payment system, but your entire financial life. The nugget: he wants it to be a “high-yield money market account.” (which means the potential to be a high-loss account, you cannot have high-yield without high-risk) Source: Ars Technica

How I See It Going

Why would a smart person give his money to a company that doesn’t pay its bills? Because there are a lot of people who are not smart. And Musk wants it to be a high-yield account, which basically means that you will gamble on some shady market with all your money. Sure, go ahead, make my day. I think even if Musk manages to get something going, he will face hurdles from regulators, and I hope so before he loses all the money of a few not smart people. So my bet is he will fail to deliver and blame his failure on regulators, but in reality it will be because his system is a shoddy piece of shit.

How It Is Going

How It Actually Went

Not there yet.

How It Started on 2023-10-20

During the Q3 2023 earnings call, Elon Musk announced that the first Cybertruck deliveries will take place during a special event on November 30, 2023. Source: Ars Technica

I got at least one thing right: Musk complained again that making Cybertrucks is hard (“we dug our own grave with the Cybertruck”.)

How I See It Going

A few Cybertrucks will be rolled out to a few handpicked customers. It will not be a true mass rollout, more like a beta rollout that should really be an alpha rollout.

How It Actually Went on 2023-12-01

YES! It went exactly as some predicted: a grand total of 10 Cybertrucks were delivered to handpicked customers.

Personal note: the Cybertruck should not be road legal. It’s a pedestrian killing machine. Hell, its design makes it a car killing machine.

How It Started on 2022-06

In June 2022, McKinsey claimed that the Metaverse had the potential to generate up to 5 trillion (US Dollars) in value by 2030. Source: McKinsey’s website and report

Note the typical use of words such as “potential” and “could”, which means that the big number is just a wild guess pulled out of their collective asses to generate buzz. This type of unsubstantiated claim is exactly what leads to bubbles.

How I See It Going

To the best of my knowledge, even Mark Zuckerberg, who renamed his Facebook empire “Meta” and said the Metaverse was the future, has already admitted defeat, or at least has considerably scaled down his ambitions. The Metaverse is not new, Second Life was its first incarnation in 2003. Even if “experts” decide to label every single online activity as the Metaverse (e-commerce, social media, online gaming, browsing, etc.) it will not be worth 5 trillion Dollars in 2030. But at least you’ll have this site to remember this wild prediction.

How It Is Going as of 2023-10-05

You not spending much time in the Metaverse? Me neither.

How It Actually Went

Not there yet.