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How It Started on 2023-10-20
During the Q3 2023 earnings call, Elon Musk announced that the first Cybertruck deliveries will take place during a special event on November 30, 2023. Source: Ars Technica
I got at least one thing right: Musk complained again that making Cybertrucks is hard (“we dug our own grave with the Cybertruck”.)
How I See It GoingA few Cybertrucks will be rolled out to a few handpicked customers. It will not be a true mass rollout, more like a beta rollout that should really be an alpha rollout.
How It Actually Went on 2023-12-01YES! It went exactly as some predicted: a grand total of 10 Cybertrucks were delivered to handpicked customers.
Personal note: the Cybertruck should not be road legal. It’s a pedestrian killing machine. Hell, its design makes it a car killing machine.
How It Started on 2022-06
In June 2022, McKinsey claimed that the Metaverse had the potential to generate up to 5 trillion (US Dollars) in value by 2030. Source: McKinsey’s website and report
Note the typical use of words such as “potential” and “could”, which means that the big number is just a wild guess pulled out of their collective asses to generate buzz. This type of unsubstantiated claim is exactly what leads to bubbles.
How I See It GoingTo the best of my knowledge, even Mark Zuckerberg, who renamed his Facebook empire “Meta” and said the Metaverse was the future, has already admitted defeat, or at least has considerably scaled down his ambitions. The Metaverse is not new, Second Life was its first incarnation in 2003. Even if “experts” decide to label every single online activity as the Metaverse (e-commerce, social media, online gaming, browsing, etc.) it will not be worth 5 trillion Dollars in 2030. But at least you’ll have this site to remember this wild prediction.
How It Is Going as of 2023-10-05You not spending much time in the Metaverse? Me neither.
How It Actually WentNot there yet.
How It Started on 2023-09-28End of September 2023, Linda Yaccarino, who is officially the CEO of Twitter, said the company would be profitable “in early ‘24”. Source: The Verge
How I See It GoingTo her credit, she said “in early ‘24.” She didn’t specify if she meant 2024 or 3024. Now profitability claims are a bit tricky. It is possible to use accounting methods and financial techniques to temporarily boost the profits of companies. So I think this claim is 99% unlikely, but not 100% impossible. Long term profits? To my chagrin I must admit that Twitter still has a possibility of achieving that goal.
How It Is GoingNot there yet.
How It Actually WentNot there yet.
How It Started on 2023-07-27The Full Self Driving story started back in 2013, but I’m not going that far back in time, partly because my own recollection of events is fuzzy about what Elon claimed back then. I’m starting from this year, and Elon declared that with v12, Full Self Driving was going out of beta (therefore implying for the general public that it will indeed be true Full Self Driving). Source: Electrek
How I See It GoingFull Self Driving will not be out of beta in 2023.
How It Is Going as of 2023-09-28
As of 2023-09-28, your Tesla still can’t fetch your bread and newspaper for you.
In October 2016, Tesla released a promotional video entitled “Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Teslas.” It was later admitted by employees that the video had been very carefully prepared and edited. Source : Tesla’s Director of Autopilot software as reported by The Verge