How It Is Going

How It Started on 2024-04-05

On Monday April 8, 2024, Elon said that AI will be smarter than any human around the end of next year (next year being 2025).

I am not making this shit up, here is a reputable source: Ars Technica

He is also one week too late for April fools.

How I See It Going

No. AI as it is today can be faster than humans. It can be more accurate than humans in specific use cases. It is not, however, smarter than humans.

How It Actually Went

How It Started on 2024-04-05

On April 5, 2024, Elon posted a Tweet on Xitter saying that Tesla will reveal its robotaxi on August 8th. He did not mention which year, but everyone makes the assumption it is 2024. Source: The Verge

How I See It Going

Yes, Elon will present something on August 8th, 2024. Tesla has a recorded history of doctoring demo videos, so it is definitely possible to present a product on August 8th. Elon did not promise it would actually work on August 8th, 2024, so my first bet is that yes he will present some sort of robotaxi on said date. My second bet is that the product will be presented as being in beta. My third bet is that it will never get out of beta.

How It Actually Went

How It Started on 2023-09-28

End of September 2023, Linda Yaccarino, who is officially the CEO of Twitter, said the company would be profitable “in early ‘24”. Source: The Verge

How I See It Going

To her credit, she said “in early ‘24.” She didn’t specify if she meant 2024 or 3024. Now profitability claims are a bit tricky. It is possible to use accounting methods and financial techniques to temporarily boost the profits of companies. So I think this claim is 99% unlikely, but not 100% impossible. Long term profits? To my chagrin I must admit that Twitter still has a possibility of achieving that goal.

How It Actually Went on 2024-04-02

Unfortunately, I have no official news to share about Linda Yaccarino’s promise that Twitter would be profitable by now. They say no news is good news. I say no news is a clue that profitability was not achieved.

How It Started on 2023-07-27

The Full Self Driving story started back in 2013, but I’m not going that far back in time, partly because my own recollection of events is fuzzy about what Elon claimed back then. I’m starting from this year, and Elon declared that with v12, Full Self Driving was going out of beta (therefore implying for the general public that it will indeed be true Full Self Driving). Source: Electrek

How I See It Going

Full Self Driving will not be out of beta in 2023.

How It Is Going as of 2023-09-28

As of 2023-09-28, your Tesla still can’t fetch your bread and newspaper for you.

In October 2016, Tesla released a promotional video entitled “Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Teslas.” It was later admitted by employees that the video had been very carefully prepared and edited. Source : Tesla’s Director of Autopilot software as reported by The Verge

How It Actually Went on 2024-01-01

I am shocked, Full Self Driving was not available in 2023. I mean, this despite the fact that it was never “Full Self Driving” in the first place. I am shocked. Shocked.

How It Started on 2023-10-20

During the Q3 2023 earnings call, Elon Musk announced that the first Cybertruck deliveries will take place during a special event on November 30, 2023. Source: Ars Technica

I got at least one thing right: Musk complained again that making Cybertrucks is hard (“we dug our own grave with the Cybertruck”.)

How I See It Going

A few Cybertrucks will be rolled out to a few handpicked customers. It will not be a true mass rollout, more like a beta rollout that should really be an alpha rollout.

How It Actually Went on 2023-12-01

YES! It went exactly as some predicted: a grand total of 10 Cybertrucks were delivered to handpicked customers.

Personal note: the Cybertruck should not be road legal. It’s a pedestrian killing machine. Hell, its design makes it a car killing machine.